September 19th, 2022
The ULA issued an emergency statement on September 14th, saying that it will check and inspect all vehicles and vessels according to the military conditions as the military council is deploying troops using civilian vehicles in Arakan State.
According to the ULA’s statement, the military council is deploying troops and supplying ammunition to its camps in Arakan State during this week, using civilian passenger flights, vehicles, boats and hovercraft in addition to the military ships, vehicles and helicopters.
The Development Media Group (DMG) interviewed veteran Arakanese politician U Pe Than about the current military and political situations in Arakan State.
Q: May I know your view on the AA’s emergency statement?
A: The main point of the statement is the military council is using civilian vehicles for the movements of troops and transport of rations and weapons. That’s why the AA will conduct checks on the roads. Another point is the passenger buses need to inform relevant administrative offices and political affairs offices before travelling. If not, the AA will check the vehicles and take action. The military council is required to avoid using the passenger buses in the movements of troops. The military council’s use of passenger buses disrupts bus owners. The passengers who get inspected may face a delay in travelling. The main point is the military must avoid using the civilian buses in the transports of soldiers, rations and arms. The AA may hamper it in term of military. The AA is in a position to disrupt it. The AA’s statement is natural. This is a warning to the public. In my view, the AA warns the public about their future processes
Q: How is military council carrying out increased deployments of troops and the supply of weapons in Arakan State?
A: On the ground, the military council no longer largely uses military vehicles when carrying rations and ammunition. The military uses military ships. However, the military doesn’t use military vehicles as it faces frequent ambush attacks. The military transports troops and rations with the use of civilian passenger buses. So, the AA will inspect vehicles. The military council should not use civilian passenger buses. Bus owners inevitably have to carry them as they are afraid of the military. Passengers face delays due to inspections. The military council should conduct military operations using military-owned vehicles and vessels. I would like to say that the military should avoid using passenger buses and vessels.
Q: Where is the military council mainly deploying its troops and ammunition?
A: The main point is the fighting has resumed recently after a unilateral ceasefire between the ULA/AA and the military council in Arakan State. Especially, the AA attacked border guard camps in Paletwa and Maungdaw. The AA has cut off ration and ammunition supply routes. So, the camps get attacked. The military council has withdrawn from some camps. That’s to say, the military council finds it difficult to control the border area. At present, the military council conducted massive bombardments in border areas and the places where the ULA/AA is likely to be stationed. The military council is carrying out increased deployments of soldiers to control border areas.
Q: May I know the military situation between the military council and the AA on the current battle ground?
A: The ceasefire built on mutual understanding is void. However, fighting is not taking place in the entire Arakan State. Intense fighting is taking place in Paletwa and Maungdaw border. The fighting starts in the border areas. The military council faces losses in terms of the ground news and the media. The military council’s camps got captured. The military council itself withdrew from their military camps. On the other hand, the ULA/AA can capture the military camps one after another. The military council has a lot of weaknesses on the ground as the AA has cut off ration and ammunition supply routes and deployment routes. The military’s efforts to get recognition on the international stage have failed. At the same time, fighting is taking place between the military council and the EAOs and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) across the country. Intense fighting resumes in Arakan State. The military council has a view that it will not give up the Arakan State. The problems in the plain area are not in a position to secede from the union. They can control it. It is uneasy for the military council to control the situations in Arakan State. In my view, the military is trying to control military situations in Arakan State by deploying more troops.
Q: May I know your view on how the political situation in Arakan State will go ahead?
A: The current situation is totally different from the past. In the past, there were no organizations which would revolutionize the strong Bamar army, in Arakan State. The ULA/AA has won greater public support in Arakan State. The AA can control the majority of areas in Arakan State. There will be final battles if the political dialogues don’t emerge. The ULA/AA has a desire to establish a liberated area. Fighting will intensify unless both sides can hold discussions in terms of politics. I assume that it will become a final battle.
Q: Under which circumstance, does the fighting in Arakan State end?
A: The expectation of the ULA/AA is confederation. Can the military council allow the AA to set up confederation? Talks will not materialize if the AA doesn’t get green-light. The AA will solve the problem by military means if the AA cannot solve it by political means. There is no other option.
Sent by Aung Htein (DMG)