An interview with Arakan politician U Pe Than
July 29th, 2022
The MNA interviewed Arakan politician U Pe Than about the current military tension between the Arakan Army (AA) and the junta troops, the negative impacts of wider wars and ways of how to make coordination to avoid the war.
Q: How can the tension between the AA and the military in Arakan State be reduced and coordinated?
A: There is a coordination channel between them. But it is done secretly. The coordination was made through Sa Sa Kawa. After that, there are the organizations which mediate between the two groups. Those organizations have officially revealed it. This is a negotiation path. As far as I know, there are no such other organizations. Some people said that the parties are mediating between them. But these means are not working well. Under this circumstance, I don’t exactly know whether both sides can make coordination through the regular channel to avoid the fighting. However, both sides have military tension on the ground. First, the military attempts to disrupt the judiciary and administrative processes of the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). The military arrests the hardcore of the ULA/AA. At the same time, the ULA/AA abducts junta soldiers and police. The incident happened in Karen State. The incident in Maungdaw is the retaliation of the junta’s airstrike in Karen State. No incidents happen again. The ULA/AA has confronted the Myanmar army in many places. Fighting doesn’t erupt in those places and in other places. The situation is stable after the fighting. It is found that both sides have no desire to see wider fighting areas whether there is coordination or not. Both sides can resume fighting if they want wider war. Fighting may erupt in all places as both sides know the locations of military camps. The situation is stable after the fighting. However, the ULA/AA issued the letters, warning the public to be cautious about travelling and delete records and photos kept in mobile phones and laptops as fighting may erupt at any time. No one can estimate when and how the fighting erupts. Fighting may erupt at any time if the military council troops invade the territories controlled by the ULA/AA. We found the situation on the ground that fighting may erupt.
Q: To what extent, can the fighting intensify if the fighting resumes like the situations before 2020?
A: The extent of fighting depends on them. In 2022, the ULA/AA force mainly has influence on the administrative, judiciary and military affairs in northern Arakan State. The ULA/AA is carrying out the extension of military, political and organizing affairs to the Western Command which is located in the middle of Arakan State. It can be said that the whole Arakan State will be overwhelmed by the ULA/AA if the ULA/AA’s influence reaches the southern Arakan State. The military area is wide as its influence reaches around two-thirds of the Arakan State. War may become wider, depending on both sides.
Q: Before 2020, fighting took place mainly in the villages. Will there be clashes in towns if fighting resumes?
A: The ULA/AA can do fighting. However, it may be very difficult for the ULA/AA to control captured areas. The reason is the ULA/AA must be merciful towards the public as it has got huge support from the public. The ULA/AA will not do the fighting in towns if it is merciful towards the public. If the ULA/AA can seize towns, the military will crush the captured areas by using artillery shelling, airstrikes and other means. The military is in a position to effectively crush the towns rather than the villages. The Myanmar army has such a tradition. The military usually carries out attacks on the public, the burning of villages and the indiscriminate artillery shelling instead of the ULA/AA. I think the ULA/AA will avoid attacking towns if fighting may be detrimental to the public. However, the ULA/AA is carrying out the abductions of soldiers and policies in towns and villages ranging from Sittwe to Taungup, at any time. The ULA/AA can do fighting as the military is making defenses based on the strength. In fact, the ULA/AA can attack other towns except Sittwe and Ann Township where the Western Command is located. I think the ULA/AA will not do fighting as it is not in a position to continue to control the captured areas. The ULA/AA will not do the acts which may not be detrimental to the public.
Q: Will the military open a new military front in Arakan State amid the current internal armed conflicts?
A: I understand that the military doesn’t want a wider war as it has no desire to do so. The military front in Arakan State is unlike other fronts. In Arakan State, the ULA/AA’s influence and power is very huge. The military will have to send many troops to the Arakan State if it opens a new front. The deployment of many troops to the Arakan front makes the military very difficult as currently the military has deployed its troops in the whole country. The situation in Arakan State is totally different from the plain area as the members of the ULA/AA have the public’s support, are familiar with the geographical area and most of the soldiers are youths who are fighting against the military with patriotic spirits. They all are trained soldiers. The military may suffer heavy casualties. It is impossible for the military to fight the ULA/AA through inland areas. The military has to rely on airstrikes and the firing of heavy shells via strategic hills. The military no longer uses inland means. It is not in a position to effectively crush the ULA/AA by firing heavy shells from distant areas. As a matter of fact, the infantry unit of the military is not in a position to fight the ULA/AA. Under this circumstance, the military can put its troops on alert. No reason to advance. So, the military invites the ULA/AA to political talks several times. I assume that the military will not wage a war on the ULA/AA. The bombings in Karen State amount to triggering the resumption of fighting. The ULA/AA has no desire to fight. The military has no desire to fight either. Both sides have controlled their areas through understanding. The problem will arise if one side provokes another and invades its area.
Q: Over the recent days, the ASEAN special envoy said he wants to use Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence to end violence in the country. The military’s political exit is the talk with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the election. May the military utilize it?
A: It is sure that the military will utilize the election. However, I think the military will not utilize Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The military may not be in a position to control it. The military shall drop the current charges against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi if the military releases and allows her to reenter politics. The military is to grant amnesty to her. The military cannot control her organizing, the public’s support and influence. The public will take to the streets if it materializes. Under this circumstance, the military may offer Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to hold a talk only when the military can surely control the situation in terms of politics and military. Even now, the military has not allowed the international community to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, citing that she is an inmate. The military will not hold a political talk with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi under the pretext of this. The military’s major exit is the 2023 General Election. A government will emerge with a stable election. Only then, shall the military play a game by adopting plans and strategies at the time. It will automatically proceed to the charter-amendment path. The military smears the party politics path as much as it can by utilizing these circumstances without any limit. The military will sheer utilize the election. The military will not allow the parties which win the elections to speak out and not to include them in the cabinet. Especially, the military doesn’t need to take account of it as there is no opposition party like the National League for Democracy (NLD). The military will adhere to the path to utilize the 2023 election as a political exit in order to get the upper hand in the military affairs rather than solving the problem by political means.
Q: Do you have anything to add about the military tension between the ULA/AA and the military in Arakan State?
A: Not only the public but also I am worried that fighting may resume. The relevant organizations are to thoroughly think about it. Lack of fighting will be the best. I cannot imagine whether they will seek the solution to the problem by political means or by military means. The price will be synonymous with the desire if we want to find the solution to the problem by political means. I think the military will not accept the ULA/AA’s demands for the confederacy and self-determination. The military will continue to use the old ways by granting some points for the federal affairs. The military will not think about the confederation, the Wa-like situation and the separate Arakan State. The political exit is becoming very narrow. Fighting will erupt if both sides make a decision by military means. This is the semi-final fight. Both sides will pay high prices. The public will mainly suffer the consequences of it. So, I am expecting the best possible situation under this circumstance.
Sent by MNA
