Read more for download now>>>
ဆက်လက်ဖတ်ရှုရန်>>>
Numerous actors have newly emerged in the politics of Myanmar after military coup. During 1988 military coup, the parallel actors against military dictators are Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the 88 Generations Students and the public. This 2021 coup is not the same as before. There have been a strong movement of government staffs, so-called CDM movement, the dynamic participation of youths who are named as “Generation Z”, the use of modern technology [including mobile phones] in the anti-dictatorship movements and the application of “Public Democracy” via social media network in order to reach the ground information and the genuine facts to International community.
Nowadays, people are planning or preparing for armed revolution. The youths in 88 Uprising had built the international relations just through the help of third party whereas today’s youths themselves can create direct contacts with international community straightforwardly. Though no one has known whether the new coming government is perfect enough or not, this coming National Unity Government (NUG) is formed with ousted parliamentarians, general strike leaders, experts and know-hows.
On the other hand, the influence of the neighboring countries upon Myanmar crisis after 1988 Uprising should be noted. Nowadays India however has become one of the world’s powerful countries and China has massive influence upon the military council itself and over almost all ethnic armed organizations. Thailand and India profoundly did help the local activists in the period after 1988 Uprising however those two countries did not stretch their welcoming hands to local activists in this 2021 coup. So, as a consequence, the places where the operations can be prepared, are hardly found. Now the ethnic armed organizations’ areas therefore would be targeted as the operation grounds for the activists since those areas had been firmly existing under the control of ethnic armed organizations since after the 88 Uprising.
NEW BATTLE FRONTS IN SAGAING REGION
On the other hand, there is one ethnic armed organization, named as Kuki National Army (KNA), in Tamu. KNA has running with its two branched groups – one in Myanmar and another in India – however the total forces amount has just reached to around 200. Although KNA was formed since February 28 1998, it had been unpopular among the Myanmar people and even the study-groups about ethnic armed organizations, including Myanmar Peace Monitor, have not noticed the existence of KNA a lot. With the intention to recognize its existence, KNA occasionally send the letter to Peace-related Organizations and also send the congratulation letter to the ethnic armed organizations in their memorial days or ceremonies. Nevertheless, Kuki National Organization (KNO) has stated that due to the fighting between military council and local people in Tamu, Sagaing Region, 18 military personnel and 2 citizens have reportedly died due to the fighting on April 10 after coup.
Likewise, fighting had broken out on April 14 between Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and KaLaRa 309 Kalay Battalion, the subordinate branch under military council, near Saydiseit village in Homalin township and one Corporal reportedly died. Since April 1, there had been fighting between Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and military council. SNA is a Shanni armed organization which is active in Kachin State and in the upper part of Sagaing Region, and it has been formed on 5th July 1989 with Shanni youths living in Kachin State and the upper part of Sagaing Region. The battles between SNA and military council are hardly seen.
In September 2017, the SNA had once sent the letter to Myanmar government in order to allow it joining the Peace Process held between government and other ethnic armed organizations. Shanni National Army (SNA) was renamed as Shanni National Front (SNF) on February 2019 so it is now known as SNA/SNF.
The active armed organizations in Sagaing Region and along the Myanmar-India border includes SNA, KNO and other groups as well. There are National Socialist Council of Nagaland – NSCN (K), Zomi Revolution Organization (ZRO) and other groups in Naga Self-Administered Zone. Nevertheless, the anti-dictatorship movements in specific places across Sagaing Region including Tamu and Homalin have been recorded as a remarkable one in Myanmar history. Likewise, if the activist youths and the already-existing armed organizations meet to cooperate for the anti-dictatorship movement, it will be necessary to watch Sagaing Region carefully. Since Kachin armed organization KIA/KIO is also active in some areas of Sagaing Region, the possible situation of Sagaing is unpredictable.
EVALUATION
This week, based on current situations in Sagaing Region, we, Myanmar Peace Monitor (MPM), have introduced a little about Shanni National Army and Kuki National Army. The surest thing is that the battle zone is getting wider as the clashes began spreading from states to regions. The wider the battle zone, the narrower the political boundary. Until now here is impossible to create a bridge in order to link between battle zone and political boundary. Any solution for the wide, diverse Myanmar’s politics is seldom seen until even today.
Rakhine and Chin States
Chin National Front (CNF), Committee Representing Chin State Hluttaw (CRCH), community-based CDM Supporting Teams and Political Parties have jointly formed the Interim Chin National Consultative Council (ICNCC) in order to lead the political issues on behalf of Chin State and Chin nationals. The military movement has been closely watching in Mindat and Hakha and there is the potential to have the confrontations soon. A villager from Paletwa has lost his leg by stepping the landmines and the military council has putting pressures upon the locals to remove satellite dishes in that region.
Seven Rohingyas entering Myanmar from Bangladesh have been arrested. AA has been trying to become its administration alive in the villages of Northern Rakhine whilst the military council keeps appointing the ward administrators everywhere. Major General Htun Myat Naing, Commander-in-chief of the Arakan Army, told that he had received the offer of the NUG government.
Kachin State
Military council is making airstrike attacks in order to get back Alaw Bum base, which was lost, and the fighting gets more intensified. KIA reported that the fighting is still occurring in Momauk township and a lot of military personnel died. KIA occupied two police station located on Myitkyina Road. Moreover, the military council had been attacked on the road heading to Sumprabum and six military personnel reportedly died. Fighting keeps intensified on the road heading to Hpakant. The polices and military troops, coming to Hpakant in order to suppress the Hpakant strike, were bombed and over thirty members of military council reportedly died and 18 were arrested. In Bamao, two youths reportedly died and one got injury in his eyes due to the blowing of heavy weapons from Artillery Branch. the news arose again that the civilians had been using as human shields by military council in Puta-O. KBC has confirmed that due to the fighting, there are nearly 300 displaced people in Momauk KBC.
Upper Myanmar (Mandalay, Sagaing, Magwe)
The military action became crueler in Upper Myanmar. Six civilians reported died during the confrontation between military council and civilians in Kani, Sagaing Region. Fighting happened on April 14 between Shanni Nationalities Army (SNA) and KaLaRa 309 Kalay Battalion, the subordinate branch under military council, near Saydiseit village in Homalin township and one Corporal reportedly died. Similarly, one policeman died in the fighting between SNA and military council near Nanthar village on April 1. One military-appointed ward administrator has been shot to death in Homalin township. In Kalay, military council shot a civilian who brought the oxygen for the patient who was in emergency. Moreover, two locals from Tamu, Sagaing Region, had been shot by military council and eighteen military personnel died, reported and confirmed Kuki National Army (KNA). Before that day, the confrontations between military council and civilians had been taking place across Tamu and two civilians were arrested. One motor-bike rider died due to the shot of military council. As military council opened fire in the compound of Islamic religious building in Mandalay, four locals were reportedly hurt.
” Military council opened fire in the compound of Islamic religious building in Mandalay, four locals were reportedly hurt …
Lower Myanmar (Yangon, Bago, Ayeyarwaddy)
The cruel suppression and serious violence of military council in Bago, Bago Region, has been regarded as the manslaughter. Military council used violence continuously for two days and at least sixty citizens have been killed according to the news. Furthermore, the news arose that the family of the deceased had been facing the difficulty in taking the body back and they needed to pay 10 lacks per corpse. The establishment of the Ayeyarwaddy Federal Army in Ayeyarwaddy Region was announced.
Shan State
Due to the joint attack by three ethnic armed organizations – AA, MNDAA and TNLA – in Naung Mong village, Lashio, Shan State, at least 14 policemen died and 2 got the serious injury. Military council and RCSS built their bases in Panlong village, Namatu township, Northern Shan State. These two forces have confrontations with the joint force of SSPP and TNLA. The confrontations have started since by March 28 and it has already passed over half a month however both sides did not give up and showed no intention to withdraw their forces. Therefore, the people from Panlong, ManKyang, YayOh, ManChyle, Mansar, Panhut, NamSilin villages fled and could not return yet. Confrontations broke out between KIA 42nd Battalion and military council near Namlan village, Mantong township and two Lieutenants died, reported Shwe Phee Myay News Agency. In certain villages of Nawnghkio township including such as Kyuinn, Hokhe, KoneGyi, KoneMyaung, YayOo, NyaungWyne, Chaungthar, Mahein villages within Kalarkwe tract, Dopin tract and HoKho tract, Shan Armed Organization RCSS made soldiers-recruitment meeting and induced villagers to join their army for saving the country. SSPP has announced its apologies upon the mistaken shot to the military plane coming to its headquarter (Wan Hai).
CRPH-NUG
- Declared the formation of National Unity Government
- TNLA stated that it will cooperate with interim government if necessary
- NUG plans to form People’s Defense Force
Military Council
- Minster of Investment under military council fired over 70 officers
- 19 civilians have been sentenced to death with the charge of the murder of military personnel
- Over 60 people have been killed by the brutal violence of military council
International, EU, US and other
Japanese Ambassador told that he felt shamed himself for his wrongful assessment upon Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. India expressed its assumption that the sanctions upon Myanmar military could not be effective and EU told that the international response upon Myanmar crisis have been hindered by China and Russia. American urged in Security Council to take action upon Myanmar Army. U Kyaw Moe Tun, Myanmar’s Ambassador to the United Nations, calls for an effective and serious action upon the military council that is torturing Myanmar citizens. China Embassy in Myanmar has announced that it has been planning to meet and negotiated with all stakeholders. Facebook warns that the contents will be removed from the page if these reflect the support to the military council.
CONCLUSION
The overview on the events during April second week reflects the international support for Myanmar’s anti-dictatorship movement through verbal and written statements. The statement of Japanese Ambassador that he felt ashamed himself for his wrongful assessment upon Senior General Min Aung Hlaing can be regarded as a good step for Myanmar Democracy movement. The collaboration of the Sagaing-based unpopular armed groups such as Kuki and Shanni armies reveals the expansion of battle grounds.
By looking the airstrike attack in re-occupying the Alam Bum base, it can be concluded that the military council will not hesitate the use of military planes in any place. The event in Alam Bum has alerted other ethnic armed groups about the possible use of military planes in Kayin and Shan State. In the ethnic politics, every ethnic group begin constituting the ethnic-based political committees. The respective newly-formed groups in Myanmar current politics are starting to strengthen their structure just even after the coup therefore it should be aware that perhaps disappointments can arise when such political groups cannot fulfil the very-high expectation of the public.