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Cover StoryMilitary Successes in Arakan State: Strategic Shifts in Conflict

Military Successes in Arakan State: Strategic Shifts in Conflict

Introduction

“Surrender early and you’ll survive and reunite with your family and relatives. If you don’t, there won’t be a happy New Year for you.”

This is a warning message from the United League of Arakan/Arakha Army (ULA/AA) to the military junta troops, as the ULA/AA now controls most of the townships in Arakan State, including the Western Command in Ann Township. This calls to mind the statement of AA Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing: “We have both justice and weapons. We also have the strength to respond decisively.”

This week’s Burma News International (BNI)-Myanmar Peace Monitor’s Bi-Weekly News looks at the military successes of the ULA/AA and the potential strategic shifts in the conflict, based on recent events and data.

The ULA/AA’s military successes

On the afternoon of 20 December 2024, the AA captured the military council’s Western Command in Ann Township, taking both deputy commander Brigadier General Thaung Tun and chief of staff Brigadier General Kyaw Kyaw Than alive. 1

On the same morning, the ULA/AA captured Light Infantry Battalion (LIB)-563 near Gwa town and continued its offensive operations to take control of the entire Gwa Township. According to the ULA/AA’s statement on 21 December, they are stepping up their offensive on Gwa town, while the junta is bringing in reinforcements from various locations, including Yangon and Ayeyarwady Regions. The ULA/AA also claims that Gwa Township will soon become the southernmost town in Arakan State to be liberated from the junta’s control.

Concurrently with Operation 1027, the ULA/AA intensified its military activities in Arakan State and Paletwa Township in Chin State. From early November 2023 to 23 December 2024, the ethnic army succeeded in capturing up to 20 towns from the junta’s control, —18 in Arakan State and 2 in Chin State. Among these, 14 are at the township level, with 13 in Arakan State and one in Chin State. In addition, Paletwa, Taungup, Mrauk-U, Thandwe, Maungdaw, and Ann Townships have important district-level departments.

The Arakha Army’s military operations are still in full swing, having captured 13 out of 17 townships in Arakan State. Their control of Ann Township, which could provide access to weapons factories in Magway Region, and Ann Township, which is close to Oke Shit Pin Townshp in Pyay District, Bago Region, suggests possible military strategic shifts in these bordering regions.

Possible shifts in the regional conflict

If the junta loses control of Gwa Township, the southernmost town in Arakan State, as indicated in the ULA/AA’s statement, this would significantly increase the likelihood of armed conflict spreading into the relatively peaceful Ayeyarwady Region.

On 12 December 2024, the Regional Command (Ayeyarwady) announced its formation under the command of the National Unity Government (NUG)’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) Southern Military Region, Sub-Region 2, with various battalions, columns, and strategic units. They claimed that they had already started operations in Ayeyarwady Region alongside allied Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs) to end the military dictatorship.

NUG’s Acting President Duwa Lashi La also sent a congratulatory message on December 22 on the capture of the junta’s Western Command headquarters by ULA/AA, pledging continued cooperation with the AA for the liberation of the whole of Myanmar and the end of military dictatorship.

On 21 and 22 December 2024, the ULA/AA’s allies, the Chin Brotherhood (CB), captured the towns of Mindat and Kanpetlet in Chin State from the military junta. These operations involved collaboration with local Chin resistance forces, the Yaw Defense Force (YDF), Yaw Army (YA), and the People’s Defense Force-Monywa District Battalion 3 under NUG-MOD, with the AA reportedly providing weapons and military support. 2 Currently, approximately 85% of Chin State’s territory, which consists of 9 townships, is now under the control of the Chin Brotherhood (CB), Chinland Council (CC), and Arakha Army (AA).

In other words, if the ULA/AA achieves its goal of capturing all of Arakan State from the junta, they could provide significant military support, including arms and ammunition, to allied resistance forces in neighboring Chin State, Magway Region, Ayeyarwady Region, and Bago Region, as the capture of Mindat has shown.

Major General Tun Myat Naing himself believes that the activities of resistance groups in Central Myanmar will become more visible in the near future. 3

Review

The military successes of the Arakha Army (AA) since the beginning of Operation 1027 in northern Shan State have been remarkable. Their capture of 20 towns within a year —from the taking of Paletwa on 14 January 2024, to the seizure of Ann on 20 December 2024 —represents a significant achievement. Moreover, their ability to provide military support, including weapons and ammunition, to local resistance forces that emerged after the Spring Revolution, similar to the powerful military alliance of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) in the north, has made these achievements even more impressive.

Although formal political and military cooperation with the National Unity Government (NUG) has not yet been observed, the Arakha Army under the leadership of Major General Twan Mrat Naing has shown no signs of disregarding the goals of ending the military dictatorship and building a federal democratic union. The AA’s ideological evolution, which began with the “Arakan Dream” or “Way of Rakhita” centered on Arakan nationalism, now seems to be moving towards a broader vision of ethnic equality, non-discrimination, and unity among all ethnic groups.

Major General Twan Mrat Naing has stated that they will continue military operations to gain full control of Arakan State, elaborating on future considerations:

“We want to build the future together in unity. However, if we don’t get what we rightly deserve, there might be other considerations.”

With 13 out of 17 townships in Arakan State under control, the military momentum of the Arakha Army continues to be active. They are currently conducting intense offensive operations against military junta forces in Gwa Township, which borders Ayeyarwady Region. As a result, Kyaukphyu Township, where Chinese projects are located, and Manaung Township, along with the capital of Arakan State, Sittwe, are beginning to feel the effects of the ongoing conflict.

The Arakha Army’s military successes are likely to continue into 2025, with potential spillover into neighbouring regions such as Chin, Magway, Ayeyarwady, and Bago.

“Surrender early and you’ll survive and reunite with your family and relatives. If you don’t, there won’t be a happy New Year for you.”

1 AA takes complete control of Western Command, Narinjara, 20 December 2024
2 Chin Brotherhood claims control of 85% of Chin State, RFA, 23 December 2024
3 Central Myanmar will see more resistance activities, Irrawaddy, 21 December 2024