An interview with Nai Aue Mon, Program Director of Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM), about the direction of the junta’s planned election.
Military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said during a visit to Belarus that the general elections will take place in December 2025 or early January 2026.
The military leader has repeatedly stated that the military council, which seized the country power through the coup, will organize new elections and transfer state power to the winning party.
Meanwhile, armed resistance against the coup and efforts to dismantle the military dictatorship continue throughout the country, with the military council now controlling less than a third of the country’s territory.
In this situation, China, Russia, and Belarus have expressed their support for the military council’s upcoming elections and have stated their willingness to provide the necessary assistance.
In this situation, Than Lwin Times interviewed Nai Aue Mon, Program Director of the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM), regarding the potential human rights violations, such as the possibility of people in junta-controlled areas being coerced into voting in the planned election.
Q: Will civilians, especially those in junta-controlled areas face human rights violations while voting amid armed conflict?
A: This question concerns the situations that will likely become the most concerning in our areas of human rights documentation, monitoring, and reporting on violations. I anticipate that they will hold a sham election in the wake of the military coup. However, the conditions on the ground make it impossible to conduct free, fair, and inclusive elections. This is why we label it a sham.
If the junta forcibly holds the election, it will undoubtedly result in direct violations of people’s rights under Article 21 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and Article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). On the ground, the people will also face numerous human rights violations related to the election. They will be divided, and this could pose a significant threat to the fundamental rights, freedoms, and peace that many fear. Even if the election takes place in their controlled territories, it is certain that, under no circumstances, will there be impartial, free, or fair political representation.
Q: Countries like China and Russia have expressed their support for the military council’s elections, offering assistance and even sending monitoring teams. If the results are announced after the election, how free and fair can they truly be?
A: The junta’s allied countries are like “birds of a feather flock together.” We all know these are not nations that the international community treats with dignity and respect. It’s a situation where dictators support one another even if it is declared valid. As mentioned earlier, I can confidently say that this will not be a free, fair, or inclusive result.
As the military regime continues to commit war crimes, we have been urging countries that uphold human rights standards, as well as the global community, to refrain from supporting the sham elections the military council plans to hold. These elections lack legitimacy, as supporting them will only deepen the ongoing political conflict. We are continuously advocating for opposition in every possible way, knowing that people will be coerced into going to the polling stations at gunpoint. Political forces and human rights advocates will resist and expose this in order to ensure the international community is fully aware of the situation.
Q: If the elections are held in both junta-controlled areas and regions controlled by the EAOs that signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), can we consider the elected representatives legitimate, given that people will be forced to vote? What is your view on this?
A: Yes, it is possible. The junta could declare a sham election result by holding it in selected areas, focusing on small communities of allies. There have been many such instances in the past in our country. It will be extremely difficult for the world to consider it legitimate representation, as it is a sham election. As is typical of dictators, they will spread propaganda, deceive through pro-military media, suppress freedom of speech, and carry out arbitrary arrests, torture, and long-term imprisonment of those who oppose them. If the sham election goes ahead, it is likely that human rights violations will occur daily.
Q: If the representatives who form the government are elected under duress, how significant will their impact be on the military dictatorship and the revolutionaries?
A: There may be some impacts, more or less. For example, divisions will deepen. In Mon State, there will be a clear division between the Mon Unity Party (MUP) which will participate in the election, groups linked to the military junta, and those supporting the resistance. In the wards and villages, there could be significant consequences for the logistics support of resistance forces, largely due to the presence of informants.
However, even in the absence of an election, the revolution is advancing in its own way. So, even if they form a government, I don’t believe they will be able to effectively carry out governance or administration. They won’t be able to manage everything. That said, as the question suggests, if they manage to hold an election, it could be their only way out, potentially gaining some international support for their legitimacy. This could slightly weaken the current efforts to challenge their legitimacy.
Q: There have been no battles to capture towns and camps in Mon State. What impact will the military council and resistance groups have on local civilians if the military council attempts to hold elections?
A: As I mentioned earlier, people in junta-controlled areas will face ongoing violations of their basic human rights, civil and political rights, including freedom of expression, political representation, and the ability to engage in ethnic political discourse and expression, all in pursuit of the junta’s desired outcomes. In addition to Mon State, similar situations could unfold in Yangon, Bago, Ayeyarwady, and Karen.
Q: As a final question, the military junta lacks the authority to hold an election, yet it plans to proceed with one. Given the ongoing struggle to dismantle the military dictatorship, is an election truly feasible? Will it actually take place?
A: In my view, I still don’t believe it will happen. The coup leader often claims his intentions, but even if it does take place, it will likely be later than the timeline he has set. If it does occur, it will undoubtedly be a complete sham. The outcome will contradict the principles of a federal democratic union, which is the shared goal of all ethnic groups, and will serve only as an escape route for the dictator.
Sent by Than Lwin Times