An interview with KNU Spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee on the military prospects of the junta and the military developments of resistance forces in 2025
Four years has passed since the military seized power. Yet, they have failed to establish effective control, largely due to the military and political activities of resistance forces in alliance with ethnic armed organizations resisting the military council.
As we transition from 2024 to 2025, engaged on several battlefronts across the country, the military has faced declining combat effectiveness and losses. This has become increasingly evident through the widespread incidents of forced portering of civilians, following their implementation of the conscription law.
Given these circumstances, Karen Information Center (KIC) interviewed KNU Spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee to find out more about the military council’s military prospects and resistance forces’ military developments for 2025, and potential impacts of international pressure on both the military council and resistance forces.
Q: How do you see the potential for Myanmar’s political and military shifts in 2025?
A: First off, our trajectory is different from others. We’re always more distinct than people think. The international community’s predictions about our imminent collapse have all been wrong. And now, year after year, our situation hasn’t gotten worse. It’s pretty obvious whose situation has actually deteriorated. While we can’t achieve total victory in one go, things have become clearer through 2022-2023, 2023-2024, and 2024-2025. Just look at how much territory they’ve lost now. Look at the latest situation. That’s why I’m saying that 2025 could bring major changes for us.
Especially in both military and political terms, we have this peculiar situation where politics is supposed to take the lead everywhere, but in reality, our situation isn’t like that. However, in 2025, given the current military situation and upcoming changes, our political situation will definitely transform too. Whatever happens, we’re working on becoming more unified, and we don’t deny that’s necessary. But considering the time needed, I can say that 2025 will definitely bring changes in both political and military aspects.
Q: What could be the situation of the military regime currently ruling the country in 2025? And what are the prospects for the success of the resistance forces? Could you please give us a brief analysis of this?
A: Not much analysis is needed. Since 2021, among the resistance forces, particularly those closest to us, most activities were carried out in the southern part of the country. In the north, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) stands out prominently. The Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Chin National Front (CNF), National Unity Government (NUG), and KIO are all very visible. Although other groups weren’t as prominent, we understand that they were moving according to their own timing and momentum, and we did what we needed to do. Then in 2023, Operation 1027 emerged. The situation changed dramatically all at once.
After that, throughout 2024, the military council faced mounting losses. And, now 2024 is over. For 2025, we don’t see any possibility of their recovery. Why? Because they haven’t been able to recapture any of the areas they threatened to retake. So their current situation speaks for itself. They don’t even have enough soldiers anymore. When they’re reduced to arresting and dragging people off the streets, they’re in no position to compete with the resistance forces. Things can only get worse for them. We’re only going to expand further.
Q: From another perspective, regarding the international community’s role – as we know, there’s Chinese intervention, Russian intervention. In this situation, how does international pressure and the international community’s role affect both the resistance forces and the military junta ruling the country?
A: There could be some impact. But our revolution didn’t just emerge yesterday. We’ve stood firm for over 70 years, and I know very well how to overcome both internal and external pressures. We have no confusion about this. So, with today’s nationwide resistance, no matter how much international pressure there is, especially pressure favoring the military council, we absolutely don’t care.
We’ll go where we need to go. We’ll face what we need to face. We know very well how to evade and how to overcome [these pressures]. And we can practically prove that whatever happens, we can overcome and that pressure becomes useless. This was also demonstrated internationally very recently, in December in Syria, where there was heavy international involvement. But it didn’t matter at all. It showed how completely disunited opposition groups and resistance organizations settled everything in just 12 days. Similarly for us, the time has come to show a decisive result in 2025.
Q: Could you tell us more about the current situation of the military council – how much has it deteriorated both militarily and politically?
A: Politically, I have no comment. Since they seized power, they’ve been losing in international relations. They have no standing at the UN. After losing all their representation and everything else, they can only ally themselves with a few groups that share their character. That’s about international relations and politics. As for the military aspect, they can never launch offensives anymore. That’s clear. It’s been the change since 2021. We’ve been conducting our own separate offensives. Not only have they lost more territory, but they’re also set to lose even more.
Furthermore, when we look at their defensive operations, they lack any real systematic approach. Looking at both sides, their lack of experience is obvious. They’re now in a situation where they’re just putting out fires left and right. When something happens in one place, they rush there; when conditions worsen somewhere else, they rush to defend that area. I can say with certainty that this approach isn’t working at all. Now with the situation in Arakan State, since the Ayeyarwady Region is nearby, they’ve concentrated their forces there. Similarly, if they hear something’s happening in Mandalay, they rush their forces there. I can clearly see that they don’t know how to conduct a systematic defense, and we’re only going to be more successful from here on.
Q: The military junta seems to be clinging to its last hope. Because they’ve explicitly announced they’ll hold elections in 2025, they’re trying various ways to legitimize themselves through the election. So, what are the possible scenarios and situations to be cautious about?
A: This dictator will act foolishly until his last breath, as we can see. Regarding the election, they’re in a position where they’ll hold it even if they get just one or two people. I mentioned this earlier and also said it in 2024. When they announced they would hold elections in 2025, I said this:
I questioned whether they would even still be around in 2025. 2025 is very uncertain for this regime. So, whatever they do won’t amount to anything. Those who oppose are ready to oppose, and who would recognize what they do? The only ones recognizing them are those who absolutely must ally with them today. We don’t even need to count these people. We’ll go on doing what we need to do. So whatever happens, 2025 is in our hands.
Q: Given the rapid pace of military and political developments in Myanmar, and the swift momentum of the revolution, what advice would you give about how resistance forces and political forces should carefully cooperate?
A: There’s just one thing. Especially since political and military aspects go hand in hand. We always need to remember that military affairs are a consequence of political affairs. Military victory is essential because we can’t defeat people who have built their power purely through military force without using military means. At the same time, our path forward needs real political leadership.
That’s why we’re systematically moving forward step by step. The country we’re building is a federal democratic country. How will we build this federalism? We’re particularly focusing on organizing from the grassroots level, strengthening from the bottom up to build a strong union level. In this aspect, one thing I can say for certain is that this country won’t fall into chaos. We will never let it become chaotic.
On this path, we believe in our goal of dismantling this entire system, transforming everything, and building this country with a truly new social order. Moving step by step, with balanced progress in both political and military aspects, we believe we can maintain our country well. Therefore, I want to let the people know that 2025 is in our hands.
Sent by KIC.
