An interview with political analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw on the political and military situations in Arakan State amidst current military, political, and diplomatic developments.
The armed conflict in Arakan State flared up again on 13 November 2023. The Arakan Army (AA) has currently taken control of large areas, including the entire Paletwa region.
Faced with the collapse of its forces and heavy defeats, the military council had to sign another ceasefire under pressure from China.
Narinjara interviewed Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a political analyst and expert on Myanmar politics, on how the political and military situation in Arakan might evolve amid the current military, political and diplomatic developments.
Q: China’s pressure has forced the armed actors to call a temporary ceasefire in northern Shan State. How do you think this ceasefire will affect the military situation in Arakan State?
A: The ceasefire negotiated in China between the military council and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) only applies to the northern region; it does not have much to do with Arakan. No one has made a promise, not even the Arakan Army (AA). It is true that the 3BHA has made a promise, but only for northern Shan State. They can freely operate in Arakan State. I think there is no problem for Arakan State.
Q: At present, the Arakan Army has taken strategic positions and camps of the miltiary council, one after another. Moreover, in northern Shan State, even the commanders of the junta’s Light Infantry Divisions (LIDs) have surrendered or been captured. What is your view on the impact on the military situation of the military junta?
A: From what I see, the military council side seems to be very shaken and demoralized. Their morale is considerably weakened. From videos of the capture of hill camps in the north, it appears that they have large quantities of weapons and ammunition. Considering that even six brigadier generals surrendered without doing anything to defend themselves, the state of their military appears to be very poor. With this momentum, it is good for the armed groups in northern Shan State to continue doing what needs to be done to liberate their regions.
Q: The Three Brotherhood Alliance has now seized nearly 30 towns, including those in Arakan State. Among the seized areas are many military camps. Will the military council succeed in retaking these positions? And what preparations do you think need to be made so that the Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs) can hold these captured areas in the long term?
A: Yes, that happened in the past. We seized control of towns ourselves when we took part in the armed revolution. But there were towns from which we had to withdraw because we could no longer keep them under control. At that time, we, the Communist Party of Burma, were on our own. But now, with the wider support of the people and the joint participation of all ethnic groups, I believe they will be able to capture and hold the seized towns because the AA is not alone.
With the 3BHA, they have backing. They have support in terms of supplies and other things. So I believe they will be able to hold the seized areas. The AA operated in regions like Wa, KIA’s Laiza, and Mongla. So they have experience. Because of this experience, I think they have an understanding of the administration. And now the military is not as strong as it used to be, it is declining rapidly. So I think both the AA and other EROs will be able to hold the towns and military positions they have taken.
Q: There are concerns that Arakan might secede, especially among the Bamar community. What is your opinion on this?
A: As far as I know, the AA is demanding confederate status, not secession. Another thing worth noting is unity among the 3BHA. It seems that the AA understands the situation well. It cannot be about independence for one ethnic nationality. They have made a promise to the whole nation. They have declared that they will fight together with the people against the military regime until the entire nation is liberated from the military dictatorship. I don’t think they will break their promise.
Q: There is a lot of support for the Arakan Army in Arakan State. Why do you think there is so much support for an armed revolutionary group? And what do you think of this overwhelming support from the people of Arakan?
A: I have personally seen the support of the Arakanese for the AA. I once visited my younger brothers in Shweli and Kyan Phone. The youths from Arakan State work laboriously there. From the money they earn, they only spend on buy food and clothes. They send the rest to the AA. So I understand that very well. The AA leadership also understands the goodwill that the Arakanese people have for them. Arakan State is different from other states and regions. It has abundant natural resources. Despite all the natural resources, people in this state still live in poverty – they are inconsolable. In places like Shweli on the border, it looks like entire villages have come to work as migrant workers. It makes me sad that they come here and work like this. They do all kinds of work that Chinese people do not want to do and support the AA financially. That’s what I have seen about them. So I can understand the mutual attitude between the Arakanese and the AA very well. The way I see it, only a nationality that loves its own land and ethnicity can feel this way.
Q: Please give a final analysis of the current military situation in Arakan State.
A: The war will spread across the country. It is not just about Arakan State with the AA. The military junta has only one way for itself – to ruthlessly bomb with warplanes and shoot the people with heavy weapons. They will continue to do these things. We, the people, will also have to go through an extremely difficult time for our own revolution. This is unavoidable. What we want is very precious. So the price we have to pay will be considerable. The war will expand.
Sent by Narinjara.