An interview with a regional military and political observer from Myitkyina.
There has been almost a month of military tension between the military council and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) as the military council is trying to establish a base in Namhsanyan village, which is only eight miles away from Laiza, the headquarters of KIA.
Since 3 July, the military council troop has been conducting continuous offensives towards Namhsanyan village on Waingmaw-Laiza road. In addition, the military council troops are attacking the area around Namhsanyan village and carrying out aerial bombardments there.
The Kachin News Group (KNG) interviewed a regional military and political observer in Myitkyina about how important Namhsanyan village is in the current battle.
Q: First, May I know your view on the intensification of fighting around the headquarters of the KIA.
A: I think there are two reasons why the military council is conducting the offensive. The first one is it is possible that the military council is putting military pressure on the KIA in order that the KIA turns to the peace talk. In the previous months, China’s Yunnan government pressured three northern alliance groups to join the peace talks. Since the coup, the military council has invited the armed organizations to the peace talks several times. It can be considered that the military council pressures the KIA with military strength as the KIA refuses to attend peace talks. The People’s Defense Force (PDF) becomes stronger in Sagaing. The military council’s effort aims to enfeeble the PDF as it assumes that the PDF provides logistical support to the KIO/KIA. The weapons mainly go to Sagaing via the Namhsanyan route. That is another reason.
Q: Do you think it will be a very intense battle?
A: I think the fighting will not be too intense. Because the military council dares not to take such a big risk. Because Laiza shares a border with China. China will not allow the military council to attack if they use too many big weapons and planes. Therefore, the battle is unlikely to be too intense.
Q: To what extent is Namhsanyan village important from the military point of view?
A: It is not a very important place for the military council. Because the military council has taken control of Hka Ya Bum and Hpun Pyen Bum. However, it is very crucial for the KIA. It is close to Mai Sak Pa. Mai Sak Pa, Mung Lai Hkyet and Woi Chyai are in a row. It is important for the KIA because the KIA sends major weapons and ammunition using this route.
Q: Is the military likely to attack Namhsanyan village and station there?
A: That is possible. As I said before, this is the route the KIA is using to carry weapons and ammunition. The junta’s move aims to reduce the transport of weapons and ammunition if it is stationed in the nearby area.
Q: On the other hand, it is a very important place for the KIA. To what extent can the KIA defend it?
A: Rather than how well the KIA can defend, it depends on how many forces the military council can use to attack the KIA. The KIA is not in a position to compete with the military council in terms of weapons, ammunition and technology. So, I can’t say to what extent it can withstand. It is known that the Lisu militia led by U Shwe Min is also participating in the battle. We need to look at their situation as they are very skilled at walking through the forests.
Q: Do you have anything to add?
A: Finally, what I want to say is the KIA may face incidents like the Hpakant incident and A Nang Pa incident if it dallies with the situation. It is difficult to say when and how the military council will conduct aerial bombardments. We need to monitor the situations as fighting continues.
Sent by KNG