Introduction

As the military council continues to lose town after town, the phrase “Sold Out” has become a popular slang term among social media users in Myanmar. Whenever the junta faces such losses, it usually reacts with a flurry of attacks, launching airstrikes indiscriminately, regardless of time or place. So, civilians are fleeing from rural areas to urban areas, then from urban areas to cities and finally from cities back to the villages. On 8 August, hundreds of vehicles were seen on the Pyin Oo Lwin-Mandalay highway rushing to safety due to rumors of an imminent attack by resistance forces on Pyin Oo Lwin.

Burma News International-Myanmar Peace Monitor’s bi-weekly news review for this week focuses on town captures, threats of junta’s airstrike and alarmed civilians, based on the data and events.

Town captures

According to BNI-MPM records, till 7 August 2024, the resistance forces have captured up to 76 towns from the military council since the coup. Since July 2021, the country has witnessed the capture of numerous towns by resistance forces. Since the start of Operation 1027, town captures have become more frequent. Of the 76 towns captured so far, 47 were taken in 2024.

Since early 2023, the resistance forces have taken at least one town from the military council each month. With the second wave of Operation 1027, which began on 25 June 2024, resistance forces consecutively captured Nawnghkio, Mongmit, Lashio and Kyaukme in northern Shan State as well as Singu, Mogok and Tagaung in Mandalay Region 1 during their military operations targeting the urban area. In addition, local resistance forces captured Matupi in Chin State and Thandwe and Kyeintali in Arakan State.

Threats of junta’s airstrikes

On 15 August, the military council bombed Kyeintali in Gwa Township, which the Arakan Army (AA) had captured on 14 August 2024, killing 11 civilians, including two children and six women, and wounding 11 others. On 10 August, the military council’s jet fighters attacked the MraukU junction in Kyat Zay Ward, MraukU Township, killing six civilians and injuring seven others. 2

On 5 August, the combined force led by the Chin National Front (CNF) sezied control of the Infantry Battalion-269 based in Thantlang in Chin State. At around 12 am on 6 August, the military council carried out bombings using three jet fighters. Thantlang town, which experienced repeated airstrikes and arson attacks, is now deserted and resembles a ruined town. 3

On 17 July, Mandalay-People’s Defense Force (MDY-PDF) seized control of Singu. On 23 July, the military council bombed Kyi Tauk Pauk village in Singu Township. In the airstrike, six locals including a 5-month-old baby were wounded. 4

The military council’s airstrikes are directly linked to the capture of towns and camps, with 2024 witnessing the highest number of airstrikes since the coup. At the same time, the safe haven for IDPs is shrinking due to the military council’s attacks and increased airstrikes.

Alarmed civilians

According to the BNI-MPM records, the total number of IDPs has surpassed 3.2 million nationwide.5 One-third of the IDPs (1,061,976) are related to the capture of towns and the loss of military camps following “Operation 1027”. Most of the IDPs have fled due to the military council’s airstrike threats and indiscriminate shelling.

Following the loss of Nawnghkio to resistance forces, the junta and its allies in Pyin Oo Lwin, which endured two unguided rocket attacks in April 2024, are preparing to flee to cities like Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw, and Yangon. Similarly, local residents of Pyin Oo Lwin are concerned about the escalating military conflict and are preparing to flee their homes.

As the fighting approaches Mandalay, local residents are also preparing to flee from the conflict. Mandalay is just over 100 miles from Mogok, which is under control of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and joint forces, and just over 50 miles from Singu, which is held by the Mandalay (MDY-PDF) and joint forces. The military council has prepared defensive measures in Mandalay.

“Almost every day, when it gets dark, the airplanes and helicopters fly around. It’s a mess. Junta troops are deployed in high-rise buildings around Mandalay Palace Moat,” a local from Mandalay said. 6

Review

National Unity Government (NUG) Prime Minister Mann Win Khaing Than has urged people to keep a watchful eye on the military situation and prepare as the wave of resistance approaches Mandalay.

It has been found that the EROs have led the resistance against the military council forces, intensifying coordinated offensive operations in Chin State, Arakan State, Mandalay Region, and Kachin State with the goal of eliminating the military council forces. There are significant signs that military operations by resistance forces to capture camps and towns will continue to intensify. “Sold out” towns may continue to emerge in Kachin State, Mandalay Region, Chin State, and Arakan State. At the same time, the military council’s aerial bombardments targeting civilians are expected to persist with dismay.

Fierce fighting between the coup military council troops and resistance forces is occurring in 67 percent of the country’s area, covering a total of 222 townships. As the war expands, the safe haven for IDPs has gradually been shrinking. The revolutionary forces, which have occupied and controlled 76 towns nationwide, should work to ensure the security of the displaced people. International governments and organizations should seriously consider measures to prevent the military council’s airstrikes to genuinely protect the people of Myanmar. They are also required to provide support to ensure that the liberated areas remain genuinely liberated.

1 Forces under NUG captures Tagaung, Myanmar Now, 13 August 2024
2 Military council’s airstrike on a church in Kyeintali kill 11 civilians including two children and wounds 11 others, Narinjara, 17 August 2024
3 After the loss of the largest military base in Thantlang, the military council bombed the town with three jet fighters, Mizzima, 6 August 2024
4 Army’s bombing kills six including a child in Singu, DVB, 25 July 2024
5 Internally Displaced Persons Situation in Myanmar, BNI-MPM, 13 Aug 2024
6 Some local residents of Mandalay are preparing to flee the war, 25 July 2024