Introduction
The steps taken by the Malaysian Prime Minister, the current ASEAN rotating chair, regarding the Myanmar issue are notably more intriguing than the actions of previous chairs. Some even speculate whether these steps have moved beyond the “ASEAN Five-Point Consensus,” which has remained ineffective for over four years. The Malaysian Prime Minister’s approach, particularly the public announcement with photos of a meeting with the National Unity Government (NUG) Prime Minister, clearly signals a preference for resistance forces over the military junta.
Having met separately with both NUG Prime Minister Mahn Winn Khaing Thann and the coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Malaysian Prime Minister Mr. Anwar Ibrahim has urged both sides to extend a “temporary ceasefire declaration” to ensure that earthquake-affected populations receive humanitarian aid.
This week’s Burma News International (BNI) – Myanmar Peace Monitor’s Bi-Weekly News Reviews looks into the ASEAN Chair’s steps, the activities of resistance forces, and the actions of the military junta.
ASEAN Chair’s Steps
On the morning of 18 April 2025, the ASEAN rotating chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and NUG Prime Minister Mahn Winn Khaing Thann held an online meeting. During the 40-minute discussion, they prioritized addressing the urgent humanitarian needs of the Myanmar people and ensuring aid reaches those genuinely in need, as stated by Mr. Anwar.
They exchanged views on the significance of the discussions and expressed hope for an in-person meeting in Malaysia at an appropriate time, according to Mr. Anwar. 1
On the evening of 17 April, Mr. Anwar also met with General Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok, where they openly discussed the critical need for humanitarian assistance and the importance of restoring normalcy in Myanmar. 2
However, neither the military junta’s statements 3 nor the NUG’s announcements 4 mentioned terms like halting nationwide military conflicts or fostering dialogue between relevant groups. Instead, the discussions focused primarily on providing urgent aid to earthquake-affected populations, as understood from the statements.
NUG Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung commented on dialogue and trust-building, stating: “The detained leaders and political prisoners have not been released. Village burnings, airstrikes, and bombings continue unabated. In short, acts of terrorism have not stopped. How can trust be built without halting these actions? Therefore, when it comes to building trust, without clear changes or political will demonstrated, we cannot simply engage in discussions. However, I believe it’s not yet time for me to say we will not discuss at all.” 5
According to the Malaysian Prime Minister, the main priority of this meeting is solely humanitarian efforts, and relevant groups must ensure a ceasefire. This is to guarantee the safety and security of all aid programs and humanitarian workers. 6
Nationwide General Offensive
At the graduation ceremony of the 5th weekly basic military training course held on 25 March 2025, by the People’s Defense Force (PDF), at Tactical Operations Command-29, Regional Military Command (Ayeyarwady), Military Operations Zone-2, Southern Military Region, NUG Defense Minister U Yee Mon announced that, as part of the military strategy, the first phase involved efforts to conduct nationwide coordinated military operations. The second phase included launching strategic offensive operations and engaging in battles to capture towns and military bases. As a result, preparations are now underway for the third phase, which is to launch a nationwide general offensive.
He further stated that the Military Region (Ayeyarwady) – the delta region where the military command operates – will play a critical role as a key battlefront in this general offensive.
According to BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor data, armed conflicts in Ayeyarwady Region have been observed with increasing frequency from late 2024 through the end of March 2025. Notably, these incidents have involved intensified coordinated offensive operations by the Arakha Army (AA) and local People’s Defense Forces (PDFs). In addition, from 1 February 2021, following the military coup, to the end of March 2025, a total of 6,113 armed clash events were recorded across Myanmar, with 2024 being the year with the highest intensity of conflicts. 7
The NUG Ministry of Defense announced a suspension of all offensive operations, except for defensive actions, from 30 March to 12 April 2025, to facilitate relief efforts for earthquake-affected populations. However, the NUG has not extended this suspension period. Similarly, the military junta, which declared a temporary ceasefire until 22 April, has not yet extended its duration.
The Path the Military Junta Must Choose
Citing the powerful earthquake and the plight of affected populations, some groups have been lobbying for a nationwide halt to armed conflicts in Myanmar, advocating for dialogue and peace. Sadly, these groups are ignoring or remaining silent about the junta’s airstrikes.
During the junta’s ceasefire period, from 18 to 20 April, three consecutive days of airstrikes in Thabeikkyin Township, Mandalay Region, resulted in the deaths of 37 civilians, including children, and injured over 50 others. Thabeikkyin Township is under NUG’s control and has been facing significant aerial attacks from the junta. Furthermore, on 16 April, the last day of Thingyan (Myanmar’s New Year), the junta conducted airstrikes near Yae Htwet village in Thabeikkyin Township. 8
Mr. Anwar, during his meeting with the junta leader, urged a return to normalcy in Myanmar. Meanwhile, understandably, the NUG and its allied resistance groups have opened the door for dialogue, presenting six political positions 9, including the military’s withdrawal from politics.
However, the junta is prioritizing its plans for a new election while continuing to carry out unrestrained airstrikes on areas controlled by resistance groups. For the junta, the only viable path forward is to engage in dialogue to find a resolution. To do so, it must immediately halt violent acts such as airstrikes.
Review
The efforts of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, working alongside the informal ASEAN advisory group led by former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, to address the Myanmar crisis are still at a stage that requires close monitoring. There is a need for a clear understanding of Myanmar’s actual situation. Particular attention must be paid to the resistance forces’ four-year trajectory of opposing the military junta through various means, as well as to realistically assessing the junta’s intentions toward the people of Myanmar.
Specifically, as the rotating ASEAN Chair, there must be heightened vigilance to avoid being deceived by the military junta. The junta’s “ceasefire declaration” contains not a single word about halting airstrikes, nor does it show any accountability for the violent acts committed against the people. It is therefore not surprising that the junta’s so-called “peace dialogue” merely a process to prolong the military dictatorship. 10
The Spring Revolution, now past its fourth year, is advancing toward ending the military dictatorship and building a Federal Democratic Union. To this end, resistance forces are increasingly coordinating across military regions and zones, while also striving to ensure broader participation in political agreements among various groups.
Despite having lost control of over 95 towns to resistance groups, the military junta continues to talk of “peace” and “dialogue” with full confidence while relentlessly conducting airstrikes and threatening the public. Clinging to the 2008 Constitution and maintaining a condescending attitude toward resistance forces, the junta’s entrenched habits will not be easily eradicated.
Therefore, the steps taken by Mr. Anwar in mediating between the resistance groups and the military junta should focus on the lives and livelihoods lost by the Myanmar people due to multifaceted conflicts. These efforts must be directed toward achieving justice for the people with accountability.
1 https://www.facebook.com/anwaribrahimofficial, 18 April 2025
2 https://www.facebook.com/anwaribrahimofficial, 17 April 2025
3 Junta’s statement on talks, 18 April 2025
4 NUG’s statement on talks, 18 April 2025
5 Exclusive interview with NUG Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung, PVTV, 18 April 2025
6 PM Anwar: Myanmar junta, opposition agree to extend ceasefire for aid efforts, malaymail, 18 April 2025
7 Myanmar Armed Conflict Dashboard, BNI-MPM, 31 March 2025
8 Junta bombs Thabeikkyin three days in a row, killing 37 including children, Myanmar Now, 21 April 2025
9 Six Political Objectives And A Future Myanmar, BNI-MPM
10 Peace Exploited for Perpetuation of the Military Dictatorship, BNI-MPM