Introduction
The momentum of “Operation 1027”, which had been halted after the Haigeng Agreement, has now been revived. Along with the subsequent military activities of the second round of Operation 1027, “Operation Shan-Man” has been initiated in the areas connecting Shan State and Mandalay Region with more frequent offensives and the capture of military junta outposts.
In this week’s bi-weekly news review, Burma News International (BNI)-Myanmar Peace Monitor examines how far the momentum of ‘Operation Shan-Man’ will reach, based on facts and events.
How Far Will The “Operation Shan-Man” Advance?
The National Unity Government (NUG) Ministry of Defense announced on 27 June 2024, that “Operation Shan-Man”, involving the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) under its command and local allied forces, has penetrated into Mandalay Region and begun operations in the region. The announcement also stated that the operation is being conducted in sync with the second round of “Operation 1027”, which resumed in northern Shan State on 25 June. 1
Operation Shan-Man involves the People’s Defense Force-Mandalay, Mogok Strategic Battalions 1221, 1222, 1223, and 1224, Battalion 513, Kyaukme District Special Attack Force, Pyin Oo Lwin District PDF, Mogok Township PDF, and Madaya Township PDF. They are engaged in battles in areas such as Kyaukme and Naungcho in northern Shan State and Mogok and Madaya in Mandalay Region.
Ko Soe Thu Ra Zaw, a member of the People’s Defense Force – Mandalay’s military leadership, stated: “We aim to transform Mandalay Region into a people’s liberated area.” 2
Connection with the second round of Operation 1027
Some refer to the second round of “Operation 1027” as the “Second Wave of Operation 1027”. The townships in northern Shan State such as Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Naungcho, Momeik, Lashio and the townships in Mandalay Region such as Pyin Oo Lwin, Mogok, Madaya, and Singu have now become areas where local armed resistance forces, including the MDY-PDF, in collaboration with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), are launching offensives against the military junta troops.
The TNLA is leading the battles in Naungcho and Kyaukme Townships, which are the combat areas of “Operation 1027” Part 2, which resumed on 25 June, with the participation of the MDY-PDF, Danu People’s Liberation Army (DPLA-PDF) and Northern Shan State Alliance Army (NSSAA).
Within the first two days of the second round of “Operation 1027”, the TNLA and allied forces captured 24 military junta camps in Kyaukme, Naungcho, Mogok, and Hsipaw Townships. According to the TNLA statements as of 4 July – the 10th day of the second round of Operation 1027 – they had captured more than 30 junta positions, including military outposts, police outposts, police stations, missile units and artillery units.
To sum up, the TNLA is playing the leadership role in the second round of Operation 1027, which began in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region, alongside local armed resistance forces who have been fighting alongside them since October 27, 2023. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Operation Shan-Man will replicate the revolutionary strength of Operation 1027, characterized by “unity, solidarity, and cooperation”.
Momentum of “Operation Shan-Man”
The Mandalay People’s Defense Force (MDY-PDF) claimed in its 2 July statement that they had taken full control of several military junta positions in Madaya Township in Mandalay Region. These included the Air Defence Base 1014 in Ingyin Myaing, Se Taw Camp, Pan Thale Taung Camp, Ye So Taung Camp, Nay Kyaw Taung Camp, Shwe Pu Htoe Camp, Kyauk Kha Lote Camp, and Myay Ni Taung Camp near the Alpha Cement Factory. They also captured 64 prisoners of war and those who surrendered, and detained about 117 military family members, including women, the elderly, and children. 3
In addition, on 3 July, the MDY-PDF announced the capture of several junta positions in Singu Township such as Doe New village outpost, Nam Hat village outpost, Ma Lar Se Shin Lin Hsaung outpost, Shwe Mar Le Zay Di outpost, Ywar Taw Lay outpost, and New Yon police station. They also reported the capture of 13 prisoners of war. 4
According to the BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor’s record, there were 74 armed clash events between military junta troops and resistance forces within 10 days from 25 June to 4 July 2024. Of these, 36.5 percent (27 events) took place in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region.
Broken down by township, these 27 clash events took place eight townships – Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Lashio, and Naungcho in Shan State and Madaya, Mogok, Singu and Thabeikkyin in Mandalay Region.
Therefore, “Operation Shan-Man” can be thought of as military operation that came with the second round of “Operation 1027”. It remains intriguing to see whether this offensive can advance as a coordinated operation aimed at liberating the entire Mandalay Region.
Review
According to the BNI-Myanmar Peace Monitor’s record between 1 January and 4 July, 2024, there were 83 armed clash events in 16 townships in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region. These battles involved the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), People’s Defense Forces/Local Defense Forces (PDFs-LDFs), and military council troops.
Meanwhile, the KIA is leading the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) and local defense forces in conducting military offensives in areas such as Kutkai, Momeik, and Mabein, while the MNDAA is active in Theinni and Lashio Townships. However, the TNLA together with local defense forces are conducting offensives against the military junta in Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Naungcho, Momeik, Mogok, and Thabeikkyin Townships.
Based on our findings, the course and military objectives of “Operation Shan-Man” as announced by the National Unity Government (NUG) Ministry of Defense are not yet fully clear. It is best understood to be conducted in sync with the second round of “Operation 1027”.
Therefore, the momentum of “Operation Shan-Man” will depend on factors such as unity, solidarity, cooperation and strategic planning, similar to “Operation 1027”.
1 PDF battalions, units participate in Operation Shan-Man, achieving a series of victories, NUG-MOD Statement, 27 June 2024
2 “We aim to transform Mandalay Region into a people’s liberated area.”, RFA, 3 July 2024
3 Battle situation report, Voice of Mandalay – PDF, 2 July 2024
4 Battle situation report, Voice of Mandalay – PDF, 3 July 2024