Neighboring Thailand’s Concerns
A member of parliament from the Fare Party raised in the Thai parliament that over 80,000 Myanmar refugees could face livelihood problems as US humanitarian aid to Thai-Myanmar border refugees would be cut off starting in August. Thai national security officials and Myanmar activists have met to discuss the refugee situation in Thailand border. During the meeting, they reportedly requested that refugees be granted access to employment opportunities in areas such as daily wage work, sanitation services, agriculture, manufacturing, and construction to help resolve to solve their livelihood problems.
Activists explained that this request was made because the US government had suspended international aid, and international humanitarian assistance to border refugee camps would be suspended starting July 31, 2025. Thai national security officials responded that they would consider the employment opportunities issue, but indicated that it will take some time due to Thailand’s current political complexities.
Following reports of water pollution in rivers along the Thai-Myanmar border, Thailand plans to submit a letter to the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) urging investigation of this as a cross-border human rights violation.
Following reports of water pollution in rivers along the Thai-Myanmar border, Thailand plans to submit a letter to the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) urging investigation of this as a cross-border human rights violation.
After discovering a crashed military drone, believed to be from the Myanmar side, about 15 kilometers from the Thai-Myanmar border in Tak district, Thai officials sent an official protest letter to Myanmar through the Thai-Myanmar Border Town Committee in Mae Sot, Tak district. The drone was found to have a gas cylinder attached, which could be used as an explosive warhead. Preliminary investigations suggest the drone belonged to the Myanmar military and crashed in Thailand after losing control while attacking revolutionary groups.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Air Force, General Htun Aung, met with the Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Air Force on 30 July 2025, at the Royal Thai Air Force Headquarters to discuss bilateral air force cooperation for regional security and stability. During the meeting, the Thai Air Force Chief offered cooperation on the future research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and proposed training courses for Myanmar Air Force officers.
Following an announcement by a Karen armed splinter group, the Kawthoolei Army, that it has taken control of a natural gas pipeline owned by the Thai company PTTEP, the Thai government is concerned about the impact of Myanmar’s internal conflict.
India’s Meetings with the Junta
After the Indian Army conducted cross-border operations against the United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent (ULFA-I) armed group into Myanmar’s Naga region, Indian military intelligence chiefs and commanders met in Naypyidaw on July 16 to discuss border security and military cooperation enhancement between the two countries, according to the military council’s announcement. Following this visit, border security was enhanced along the Myanmar border starting July 20, with increased screening of border area residents.
Additionally, the Myanmar military and Indian Army jointly conducted a UN Peacekeeping Officer Course in Naypyidaw on July 21. On July 29, the military council signed a pilot project memorandum of understanding for the Digital ID program with Indian Ambassador to Myanmar Mr. Abhay Kumar, as announced by the Indian Embassy.
Authorities in Serchhip, Mizoram, began collecting biometric data of Myanmar refugees on 30 July. The process will be extended to 30 villages in the district, which hosts 647 refugees. Over 30,000 refugees from Myanmar are currently sheltering in Mizoram. After a 24-day protest in New Delhi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has agreed to the demands of Myanmar refugees. The UNHCR will conduct Refugee Status Determination (RSD) interviews for asylum seekers.
China’s Continued Support for the Junta
Following the military’s lifting of the state of emergency, China has expressed its willingness to play a constructive role in the stability and peace of Myanmar. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that while China adheres to a policy of non-interference in internal affairs, it is willing to actively promote peace talks according to the needs of all parties in Myanmar.
On 5 August, the Chinese government provided over $3.3 million from the Mekong – Lancang Cooperation Special Fund for 14 projects in Myanmar across various sectors, including agriculture, science, culture, and trade.
The Chinese government has reportedly increased its cooperation with ethnic armed organizations, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA), to combat online scam operations in border areas.
The Burma Act and President Trump
Burma GAP Act, and No New Burma Funds Act – on July 22, preparing to submit them to the House of Representatives. The BRAVE Burma Act is designed to expedite implementation of the Burma Act signed by President Joe Biden in 2024. It is expected to take about another year after House approval and Senate confirmation.
Analysts suggest that the Trump administration has accepted proposals for Myanmar’s rare earth mineral extraction, which could change America’s long-term policy toward Myanmar.
Since the US produces only small amounts of rare earth minerals domestically and relies heavily on imports, securing rare earth supply chains is a key focus for the Trump administration in strategic competition with China.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) website showed on July 24 that the US government had lifted sanctions on businesses close to the Myanmar military council. Organizations and individuals removed from the sanctions list include KT Services & Logistics and its founder Jonathan Myo Kyaw Thaung, Myanmar Chemical and Machinery Co. Ltd (MCM Group) and owner Aung Hlaing Oo, Suntac Technologies and owner Sit Taing Aung, and businessman Tin Lat Min.
These entities were sanctioned between 2022-2024 under former President Joe Biden’s administration due to their connections to Myanmar’s defense sector and proximity to senior coup military officials. The Treasury Department and White House did not explain the reasons for lifting the sanctions. However, military leaders including Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and military-owned companies remain on the US sanctions list.
ASEAN’s Actions Regarding the Situation in Myanmar
An ASEAN delegation led by Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan is scheduled to visit Myanmar on 19 September. The foreign ministers of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia will also be part of the delegation, which will observe the situation following the military junta’s lifting of the state of emergency. ASEAN has planned this trip ahead of the 47th ASEAN Summit to be held in October.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the current ASEAN chair, has called for no new attacks from either side in Myanmar as a precondition for ceasefire talks. In addition, during a meeting with reporters on 5 August, he stated that Malaysia has an approach for the security and well-being of the long-persecuted Rohingya community.
What the UN, Japan, and INGOs Have Said
The UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) has found evidence that Myanmar’s security forces have committed systematic torture, stating that in some cases, high-ranking military officials were personally involved in the commission of these crimes. The IIMM is preparing cases to bring those responsible to justice.
Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi expressed extreme concern over the lack of progress in Myanmar more than four years after the military coup. Japan has condemned the military junta’s plan to hold an election without any political progress.
International IDEA stated on 12 August that any election held by the military junta would be illegitimate and could lead to increased violence. The organization assessed that the military’s recent dissolution of the State Administration Council and formation of a new security commission is a strategic restructuring intended to create a facade of democratic legitimacy before an election, rather than a genuine reform.