It has been one year since there was no fighting between the military and the Arakan Army (AA) in Arakan State. The ceasefire turned one year on November 11st. Some Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have returned to their homes and restarted their work due to the lack of fighting.
But, fighting between the military and the AA resumed in Maungdaw Township in Arakan State on November 9th, 2021.
At present, there are military tensions between two armed groups. The DMG collected the views on the possibility of renewed fighting in the Arakan State and what will happen if fighting continues.
U Khaing Kaung San, Director of Wanlark Regional Development Foundation
There may be such a situation in the future. But it is uneasy for the military to wage a long-term war as in 2018-2019. The main reason is there may be frequent relations between the leaders of two organizations. That’s why, there may be no long-term fighting. Another point is fighting is taking place between the military and the PDFs across the country. Due to the guerilla warfare, the chance of a big war in Arakan State as in 2018-2019 is slim. Because the Tatmadaw, for instance—making peace in Kachin State when there is fighting with the Karen armed group. Making peace with the Karen armed group when there is intense fighting with the Kachin armed group. This is the Tatmadaw’s strategy. I think the Tatmadaw will continue using this strategy. There will be no offensive operations in Arakan State as fighting is taking place in the plain areas. In my view, the Tatmadaw will not do battles even if the AA creates tension.
U Tha Tun Hla, Chair of the Arakan National Party (ANP)
Intense fighting may have huge impacts on the people. Ceasefire is made between the military and the AA in Arakan State through a verbal agreement. It is not the ceasefire made through the agreement. We cannot say that there may be no intense fighting as the ceasefire is made through mutual understanding. Intense fighting may make the public’s accommodation and livelihoods more difficult.
A local from Minkhamaung village in Maungdaw Township
Yesterday, the sounds of heavy weapons were heard from my village. Locals don’t dare go outside due to the sounds of heavy weapons. Locals are concerned about fighting. They are worried about the similar fighting occurred in Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships last year. We have not made any preparations for fighting. We have planned to move to downtown Maungdaw if the situation becomes worse. Locals don’t want the renewed fighting.”
Daw Nyo Aye, Chair of Arakan Women’s Network
We are worrying about the resumption of fighting when both sides have made a ceasefire in Arakan State. Locals face a danger of landmines even though there have been no encounters here. It is also found that the authorities objected to the return of IDPs to their homes. The people detained for alleged link to the AA remain behind bars. The military declared a unilateral ceasefire in Arakan State. The worrying point is “will the military open a new front in Arakan State?” The Arakan people will be in big trouble if the military opens the new front.
U Thein Tun Oo, an IDP from Naypukhan IDP camp in Kyauktaw Township
We have to bear the brunt of the war. We have more worries. Our livelihood problem shall face a more worrying situation due to the resumption of war. The accommodation problem may become worse. At present, the people face a shortage of food. Our IDPs will be helpless if fighting resumes. The IDPs will not be looking forward to the days they can go home. We are passing the days in the hope that we shall go home one day as there is no fighting. We couldnot think about our plan to go home as we heard the sounds of gunfire. We no longer want battles. We expect no battle resumes.
Sent by Aung Htein (DMG).
