Myanmar Peace Monitor

Prospects for peace

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Distrust and lack of confidence
  • More regard needs to be taken to resolve ongoing clashes between several of the ethnic armed groups and the government and address concerns about the excessive military power reserved in the 2008 Constitution
  • More transparency and effective communication is needed to overcome mistrust
  • In the case of military movements, clear coordination and communication is essential to prevent unintended conflicts
Escalating conflict in Kachin state
  • An immediate solution is needed to stop the conflict in Kachin and northern Shan state from spiraling further out of control, the situation has now become a vicious cycle in which the higher the incidences of fatalities, the more emotionally invested the opposing armies become. This is making both sides resort to revenge tactics and diverting energy from finding solutions that will bring about peace
  • The longer the conflict continues the harder it is to build confidence, not only between the government and combatant groups, but also those attempting to make headway in peace negotiations
No political settlement reached that details how power will be shared between the government and ethnic armed groups
  • The government’s peace plan expects ethnic armed groups to transform into political parties and compete in elections, thereby gaining the necessary power to make amendments to the 2008 Constitution
  • This does not guarantee or clearly define how the ethnic militia groups can win enough seats to make amendments when the military is reserved 25% of parliament
  • Ethnic groups believe that state level parliament does not have any real power
  • Ethnic resistance groups want a guarantee of ethnic rights and more power on the state-level than currently stipulated in the 2008 Constitution
Border Guard Force/ People’s Militia Force issue
  • An alternative plan for ethnic armed groups and the government, to coordinate and/or gradually integrate all of the various armed forces in the country
Fair and transparent distribution of resource revenue generated in ethnic states
  • Clear revenue sharing needs to be worked out
  • In particular, some of the revenues from natural resources extraction and industrial projects in ethnic areas need to be reinvested to benefit the local community
Confusing and contradicting information about peace process activities
  • Policies and activities of ethnic armed groups, government bodies, CBOs and international agencies currently lack coherence and transparency - further complicating an already complex situation
  • More knowledge and clarity regarding the activities of all stakeholders is critical in forming a coordinated and effective peace process
  • Information about relevant activities is often not recorded in a systematic manner, making it difficult to understand and therefore plan and implement effective policies
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